Opinion Research Business Poll Summary Not Really True Interpretation Of The Data Collected

So, I cruised over to my favorite right wing bullshit blog, Butts4Bush, and the acid kool aid they are tripping on today caught my eye.

First off, the writers of the blog have, to me, gone off the deep edge ever since November 2006, when the most horrible thing that could ever happen ... happened. After that, the state of denial of the blog staff and commentors has become blatantly apparent. Among their memes is the one that things are rosy and functional in Iraq, just not reported by the left leaning liberal press.

Today's lead off post was about a new "survey" that claimed most Iraqis believe they are better off now, love the Americans and don't believe there is a civil war. That stuck out like a sore thumb, or a black eye if you will, because none of those things are documented. In fact, quite the opposite is documented. I also noted that there was no link provided for the "poll" nor a link provided to the poll taker. It took some digging, but I found Opinion Research Business who allegedly conducted the poll.

The back up data and charts do not support the conclusions they came to. For example, the statement that only 27 % believe that there is a civil war in Iraq and 61% think there is not, is skewed. Here is the question and optional responses:

Which of the following comes closest to your own opinion about the state of Iraq at the moment.

Responses:

Iraq is in a state of civil war - 27%
Iraq is close to a state of civil war but not in one yet - 22%
Iraq is still some way from civil war - 18%
I don't think Iraw will ever get as far as civil war - 21%
Don't know/refused - 11%
No answer - 3%

To me, it is clear that a majority of those polled believe Iraq is in a civil war, very slose to one, or still some way. That is 61% of those polled that view the civil war issue as either occurring, iminent or looming, and not the other way around.

Here is the release, as posted on Butts4Bush:

MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today.

The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week.

One in four Iraqis has had a family member murdered, says the poll by Opinion Research Business. In Baghdad, the capital, one in four has had a relative kidnapped and one in three said members of their family had fled abroad. But when asked whether they preferred life under Saddam, the dictator who was executed last December, or under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, most replied that things were better for them today.

Only 27% think there is a civil war in Iraq, compared with 61% who do not, according to the survey carried out last month.

By a majority of two to one, Iraqis believe military operations now under way will disarm all militias. More than half say security will improve after a withdrawal of multinational forces.

Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, said the findings pointed to progress. “There is no widespread violence in the four southern provinces and the fact that the picture is more complex than the stereotype usually portrayed is reflected in today’s poll,” she said.

Here is the link to the actual survey site, and the .pdf charts with the actual questions.

On the positive side, some commentor on the Butts blog found the site as well, and pointed out some of the same stuff I have already opined.

No Matter What The Circumstances Are

The US Attorneys serve at the pleasure of the President - he can hire and fire them at will, so no such action is a matter of scandal, no matter what the circumstances are.

Some people really do drink the kool aid, no matter what the circumstances are. (emphasis mine)

Courtesy of Butts4Bush, no link provided intentionally.

Another Ridiculous Right Wing Explanation For The Walter Reed Fiasco -- It's Socialized Medicine!

The way this is being politicised is nauseating...especially coming from leftwingers who for the past 5 years have shown they don't care at all about the troops.

At any rate, it is a problem, it has been identified and it is being fixed. This, though, is the sort of thing which is going to happen when you have a large, bureaucratic organization...this is socialised medicine. When I was in, I broke my collar bone and had to wait three days or so for a proper brace...they tried; the Docs were good, the corpsmen were good - heck, they even got the chief bo'sun to try and rig up a brace for me using a safety harness...but, somewhere along the line someone neglected to order collar bone braces...no one's fault, just happened.

You lefties just go about your business - I'm not buying these crocadile tears.

Posted by: Mark Noonan at March 6, 2007 12:23 AM

Socialized medicine? The damn Army privatized the services at Army hospitals, for Christ's sake, MARK! There's really nothing more I could add to this ridiculous post at Butts4Bush. Sheesh.

Speaking of Butts4Bush

I hate to end the night on a downer, but:

This is, after all, the United States military - the finest fighting force the world has ever seen. Can anyone doubt that they will come up with the correct plan and have the will and skill to carry it out? The only thing which could cost us victory in this War on Terrorism is our own weakness here at home - our troops are staunch, but are we?

Perhaps it's time for last call here at the bar.

When Will Truth Win Out Over Bullshit?

On the other hand, if the Democrats would just come out and say it - that they are a Party entirely dedicated to federally funded abortion on demand and they daren't retreat from this for fear of angering the abortion industry - this would be at least a bit of refreshing honesty for our Democrats.

Simple minded people at Butts4Bush. Blanket assertions, especially when it comes to those pious issues the right wingnuts so lovingly cling to, like reproductive rights, are how they reduce people and their beliefs to simple talking points.

It's bullshit to even opine that the Democratic party is a party "entirely dedicated to federally funded abortion on demand." Yet, this is where we are in America today. No one gives a shit about the truth. Nada.

If Bill O'Reilly can go on David Letterman's show and spew his typical bullshit, and get away with it, then there is little hope that this country is headed in the right direction, insofar as media is concerned.

I read a lot of the blogs that were all over the Letterman show, and in a good way, mind you. Because Letterman actually said he felt that 60% of what Mr. O'Reilly said was bullshit (and it got a laugh), that just tickled the "left." But, Letterman had to admit (1) that he never watched O'Reilly's show, and (2) that he didn't know the story about "Silent Night" was bogus.

I need another latte.

But there is no war against religion, they say...yeah. Sure. Whatever you say, lefties...

Typical flawed reasoning over at Butts4Bush:

I'm a believer in God; ergo, I'm a believer that the universe was designed by an intelligence. Given that one recent poll I saw shows that 94% of Americans believe in God, it follows that 94% believe in intelligent design of the universe.

... "it follows that ..."

With that reasoning, let's try this on for size. 70% of Americans think that Bush lied to this country about the reasons for going to war in Iraq, ERGO, 70% of Americans believe BUSH IS A BIG FAT FUCKING LIAR.

Yeah, I like that!

The post closes with this little doosie:

Our children are not to even so much as hear about alternative theories of the universe because any alternative is an establishment of a different religion from that of our reigning liberal orthodoxy.

How in the name of GOD can these people talk about "reigning liberal orthodoxy," when the God Damnned Right Wing Fucking Christian Neocons are the ones in charge of the White House, The House and The Senate? I can't find one fucking liberal up on the hill, as it were, so it just galls me when I read or hear or have to listen to these really ignorant assholes talk about the "reigning liberal orthodoxy," which does not exist. I swear, don't these people smell the shit in their own pants once in a while?

If You Just Wish It True

NBC/WSJ Poll: 39 percent approve of Bush’s handling of his job while 55 percent disapprove.

NYT/CBS Poll: 40 percent approve of Bush’s handling of his job while 53 percent disapprove.

AP/Ipsos Poll: 42 percent approve of Bush's handling of his job while 57 percent disapprove.

Fast forward to Butts4Bush blog: A Financial Dynamics poll conducted December 12-13 find Bush's approval rating at 50%.

WTF? Who the hell is Financial Dynamics, and who cares?

This little tidbit closes out the post:

With Americans seeing the indisputable evidence of the strength of our economy, and President Bush speaking out more on Iraq, we're seeing an obvious trend of higher polls numbers for the President, and more frowns from Democrats...