Opinion Research Business Poll Summary Not Really True Interpretation Of The Data Collected

So, I cruised over to my favorite right wing bullshit blog, Butts4Bush, and the acid kool aid they are tripping on today caught my eye.

First off, the writers of the blog have, to me, gone off the deep edge ever since November 2006, when the most horrible thing that could ever happen ... happened. After that, the state of denial of the blog staff and commentors has become blatantly apparent. Among their memes is the one that things are rosy and functional in Iraq, just not reported by the left leaning liberal press.

Today's lead off post was about a new "survey" that claimed most Iraqis believe they are better off now, love the Americans and don't believe there is a civil war. That stuck out like a sore thumb, or a black eye if you will, because none of those things are documented. In fact, quite the opposite is documented. I also noted that there was no link provided for the "poll" nor a link provided to the poll taker. It took some digging, but I found Opinion Research Business who allegedly conducted the poll.

The back up data and charts do not support the conclusions they came to. For example, the statement that only 27 % believe that there is a civil war in Iraq and 61% think there is not, is skewed. Here is the question and optional responses:

Which of the following comes closest to your own opinion about the state of Iraq at the moment.

Responses:

Iraq is in a state of civil war - 27%
Iraq is close to a state of civil war but not in one yet - 22%
Iraq is still some way from civil war - 18%
I don't think Iraw will ever get as far as civil war - 21%
Don't know/refused - 11%
No answer - 3%

To me, it is clear that a majority of those polled believe Iraq is in a civil war, very slose to one, or still some way. That is 61% of those polled that view the civil war issue as either occurring, iminent or looming, and not the other way around.

Here is the release, as posted on Butts4Bush:

MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today.

The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week.

One in four Iraqis has had a family member murdered, says the poll by Opinion Research Business. In Baghdad, the capital, one in four has had a relative kidnapped and one in three said members of their family had fled abroad. But when asked whether they preferred life under Saddam, the dictator who was executed last December, or under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, most replied that things were better for them today.

Only 27% think there is a civil war in Iraq, compared with 61% who do not, according to the survey carried out last month.

By a majority of two to one, Iraqis believe military operations now under way will disarm all militias. More than half say security will improve after a withdrawal of multinational forces.

Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, said the findings pointed to progress. “There is no widespread violence in the four southern provinces and the fact that the picture is more complex than the stereotype usually portrayed is reflected in today’s poll,” she said.

Here is the link to the actual survey site, and the .pdf charts with the actual questions.

On the positive side, some commentor on the Butts blog found the site as well, and pointed out some of the same stuff I have already opined.