Monday, January 05, 2009

Stimuls Package? What Stimulus Package? We Don't Need No Stinking Stimulus Package! Tax Breaks, That's What We Need!

Obama is already sliding down that slippery slope known as appeasing the Republicans. Now it's with the stimulus package that has morphed into including "tax breaks."

WASHINGTON - President-elect Barack Obama plans to include about $300 billion in tax cuts for workers and businesses in his economic recovery program, advisers said Sunday, as his team seeks to win over Congressional skeptics worried that he was too focused on government spending.

The legislation Mr. Obama is developing with Congressional Democrats will devote about 40 percent of the cost to tax cuts, including his centerpiece campaign promise to provide credits up to $500 for most workers, costing roughly $150 billion. The package will also include more than $100 billion in tax incentives for businesses to create jobs and invest in equipment or factories.

The overall economic package, of $675 billion to $775 billion, is taking shape as Mr. Obama arrived in Washington and planned to begin trying to build support in Congress and among the broader public for his approach to stimulating the economy. Mr. Obama, who flew to the capital on Sunday to join his family in a hotel suite while awaiting his inauguration, planned to meet with Congressional leaders on Monday and deliver a speech on Thursday laying the ground for his emerging economic program.


According to Paul Krugman -- Good Luck!

News reports say that Democrats hope to pass an economic plan with broad bipartisan support. Good luck with that.

In reality, the political posturing has already started, with Republican leaders setting up roadblocks to stimulus legislation while posing as the champions of careful Congressional deliberation — which is pretty rich considering their party’s behavior over the past eight years.

More broadly, after decades of declaring that government is the problem, not the solution, not to mention reviling both Keynesian economics and the New Deal, most Republicans aren’t going to accept the need for a big-spending, F.D.R.-type solution to the economic crisis.

The biggest problem facing the Obama plan, however, is likely to be the demand of many politicians for proof that the benefits of the proposed public spending justify its costs — a burden of proof never imposed on proposals for tax cuts.

[snip]

Here’s my nightmare scenario: It takes Congress months to pass a stimulus plan, and the legislation that actually emerges is too cautious. As a result, the economy plunges for most of 2009, and when the plan finally starts to kick in, it’s only enough to slow the descent, not stop it. Meanwhile, deflation is setting in, while businesses and consumers start to base their spending plans on the expectation of a permanently depressed economy — well, you can see where this is going.

So this is our moment of truth. Will we in fact do what’s necessary to prevent Great Depression II?

Finally, Kevin Drum weighs in with this:

I've been getting the same sense recently: Obama's team is so focused on getting a big bipartisan majority for their stimulus legislation that they're negotiating their goals down even before they actually start negotiating. I'm reluctant to critique Obama's political instincts, since they've proven shrewd so often in the past, but I gotta say: this isn't going to work. Obviously Obama needs a modest level of Republican support just to get the bill passed, but he doesn't need 80 votes, and straining to get there will just produce a watered-down plan without getting anything in return.

The American public really doesn't know or care if this bill passes by one vote or thirty votes. So why waste time on this? It's just a gold-embossed invitation for Republicans to obstruct and posture endlessly, something they hardly need any encouragement for.

As I have already posted earlier, I doubt Obama can change the downward spiral direction of America, at least not in his first two years.

H/T to Steve Benen at the Washington Monthly.

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