Wednesday, August 17, 2005

The budget deficit is not $331 billion!!!

Interesting little tidbit here, to offset what is being reported as a new projected lower deficit for 2005.

Congressional forecasters said Monday the federal deficit this year, though still huge, won't be as bad as originally projected -- a welcome turn for President Bush who inherited healthy usrpluses four years ago and saw them disappear in a sea of red ink.

At the same time, the fiscal outlook remains troubled for years to come, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said.

The CBO predicted a $331 billion deficit for the budget year ending Sept. 30 and a $314 billion deficit for next year.

Last year's deficit was a record $412 billion. In February, the White House had predicted this year's shortfall would set a higher record of $427 billion.


The short-term improvement was attributed to an $84 billion surge in estimated tax receipts, including a 42 percent increase in revenues from corporate profits.

But, wait! There's this to consider.

Everybody is reporting that the "non-partisan" Congressional Budget Office is calling for a budget deficit of $331 billion for FY 2005. Everybody.

But that's not true. Get the report (PDF) and go to page 2. Here is what you will see:


Social Security surpluses (and some other minor inputs) are being used to lower the number from the true deficit, $507 billion, to the less scary $331 billion. That's misleading. The federal government is borrowing from the Social Security trust fund, just like it's borrowing from China and other places. And check out those top-line numbers for all years. With increasing Social Security surpluses, you can actually have larger real deficits, but subtract the surplus in order to present a shrinking deficit.

What the hell is going on here? Why is this charade allowed to go on? Who is going to blow the whistle on it? This blog? You've got to be kidding. Where are the heavy hitters, either in the media or in the blogosphere (and especially the liberal blogosphere).

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